Northern Arizona
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
82  Melanie Townsend JR 19:58
274  Paige Gilchrist SO 20:31
275  Kayla Freeman SR 20:31
415  Kylie Goo SO 20:47
651  Mikayla Malaspina FR 21:08
672  Caroline Hogardh SR 21:10
872  Moa Rothman FR 21:25
1,223  Miranda Myers FR 21:51
1,400  Rolonda Jumbo SR 22:03
National Rank #44 of 339
Mountain Region Rank #8 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 7.8%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.9%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 12.6%
Top 10 in Regional 99.6%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Melanie Townsend Paige Gilchrist Kayla Freeman Kylie Goo Mikayla Malaspina Caroline Hogardh Moa Rothman Miranda Myers Rolonda Jumbo
Cowboy Jamboree 09/26 739 20:03 20:25 20:34 20:20 21:12 21:30 22:03
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 795 19:55 20:49 20:44 20:50 20:31 20:58 21:25
ASU Invitational 10/23 1348 22:51
Big Sky Championships 10/31 849 20:06 20:11 20:45 21:26 21:15 21:29 21:25 22:05
Mountain Region Championships 11/13 742 19:56 20:40 20:06 20:43 21:29 21:12 21:30
NCAA Championship 11/21 19:58





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 7.8% 25.4 604 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1
Region Championship 100% 7.3 211 0.0 1.7 4.0 6.9 13.1 21.5 37.6 11.7 3.2 0.4 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Melanie Townsend 64.7% 75.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Paige Gilchrist 9.4% 148.7
Kayla Freeman 9.1% 150.2 0.0
Kylie Goo 7.8% 192.1
Mikayla Malaspina 7.8% 226.3
Caroline Hogardh 7.8% 230.2
Moa Rothman 7.8% 242.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Melanie Townsend 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.1 4.4 4.7 4.8 6.3 6.2 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.4
Paige Gilchrist 38.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0
Kayla Freeman 38.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.9
Kylie Goo 51.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Mikayla Malaspina 67.5 0.0
Caroline Hogardh 69.4
Moa Rothman 81.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 2
3 1.7% 82.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 3
4 4.0% 59.4% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.6 2.4 4
5 6.9% 29.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.2 4.9 2.0 5
6 13.1% 11.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 11.6 1.5 6
7 21.5% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 21.0 0.5 7
8 37.6% 37.6 8
9 11.7% 11.7 9
10 3.2% 3.2 10
11 0.4% 0.4 11
12 0.0% 0.0 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 7.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.9 0.5 92.2 0.0 7.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
SMU 21.4% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 11.7% 1.0 0.1
West Virginia 10.3% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 8.6% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.4% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Indiana 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Boston College 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.8
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 6.0